Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 2.776103 3.318144 3.924295 4.650360 5.494302 6.442134 7.584977
2025-11-30 1.961800 2.640945 3.481434 4.589853 6.003896 7.737332 10.011690
2025-12-07 1.407209 2.098084 3.029813 4.360765 6.192271 8.599924 11.975283
2025-12-14 1.098492 1.788889 2.790866 4.321458 6.563502 9.682917 14.294506
2025-12-21 0.885471 1.561230 2.608235 4.304629 6.927614 10.758248 16.680832
2025-12-28 0.782467 1.477697 2.616906 4.556915 7.695132 12.465327 20.115932
2026-01-04 0.676475 1.364545 2.553705 4.675845 8.255931 13.902108 23.266037
2026-01-11 0.602542 1.291419 2.541297 4.868160 8.943876 15.585225 26.929016
2026-01-18 0.515662 1.175290 2.432065 4.872376 9.308092 16.770763 29.887538
2026-01-25 0.424340 1.030536 2.244809 4.705399 9.347466 17.409904 31.987926
2026-02-01 0.349264 0.903193 2.068627 4.530201 9.343342 17.960825 33.966631
2026-02-08 0.303834 0.831633 1.992108 4.535176 9.666960 19.102412 37.041563
2026-02-15 0.264213 0.766369 1.920862 4.546153 10.012908 20.332063 40.407412
2026-02-22 0.226338 0.696760 1.828545 4.500023 10.240549 21.363368 43.499277
2026-03-01 0.183796 0.604147 1.666915 4.278843 10.083951 21.649611 45.227686
2026-03-08 0.158426 0.552187 1.592469 4.241386 10.304195 22.677842 48.431059
2026-03-15 0.137852 0.508771 1.531314 4.225201 10.565974 23.805677 51.904815
2026-03-22 0.131352 0.507044 1.577667 4.473451 11.437673 26.235132 58.110818
2026-03-29 0.120040 0.486990 1.571521 4.590471 12.022483 28.114499 63.338230
2026-04-05 0.112427 0.477446 1.592809 4.779661 12.792162 30.437466 69.618633
2026-04-12 0.099536 0.445852 1.545668 4.783812 13.123858 31.847937 74.105435
2026-04-19 0.083569 0.397996 1.441412 4.619558 13.029777 32.322635 76.658362
2026-04-26 0.069827 0.354025 1.340007 4.447227 12.894605 32.690765 79.001903